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But that subject matter expertise — plus the patina afforded by resigning on January 6 — has helped Pottinger, a former journalist, expertly navigate the post-Trump landscape. He even emerged as the White House hero of the initial Covid-19 chaos in New Yorker writer Lawrence Wright’s chronicle of “The Plague Year.”

Pottinger declined an interview request from Vox, and his attorney Mary Boies responded on his behalf. “Matt led the way resigning promptly on January 6 and that action makes spoken denunciation unnecessary and certainly not disqualifying from public service. With Matt’s counsel, the U.S. reversed decades of failed policy toward China, and the new policy has continued under the Biden Administration,” Boies wrote. “This country needs the kind of sound policy that Matt helped craft, not aggressive rhetoric that only further divides the nation.”

Yet a lot of that aggressive rhetoric has come from the president whom he served. And the siege of the Capitol was a red line for Pottinger, but apparently not Trump’s previous questioning of the integrity of the election that gave rise to the attempt to overturn it, or any number of other incidents.

But look at what that red line bought Pottinger. The act of resigning set him apart from his boss, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, who stayed on through the handoff to President Joe Biden two weeks later. In that role early last January, O’Brien was mostly worried about antifa counterprotesters to the insurrectionists rather than the pro-Trump insurrection itself, according to the Washington Post. O’Brien hasn’t emerged with the same prestige. He’s been working as a mediator for a Los Angeles law firm, an atypical role for a former security chief. He recently started a consulting firm with other officials from the Trump White House since many of them had difficulty securing coveted jobs, according to Bloomberg.

Yet after a full term alongside Trump, things are going well for Pottinger. This summer, he was the only former Trump White House staffer on the schedule of the eminent Aspen Security Forum. He hopped off early from a panel to serve as an expert witness at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. This year, Pottinger has appeared twice on CBS’s 60 Minutes to talk about the Wuhan lab leak theory of Covid-19’s origins, which he has advanced, and China’s aggressive economic policies. Neither time was he asked about Trump.

Experts get a pass

One reason that Matt Pottinger was welcomed back into the establishment is that, unlike some of Trump’s unconventional appointees, he had already been a part of the elite.

Pottinger has become the go-to expert on China’s economic and security outlook. He speaks fluent Mandarin, and as China correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, he broke news on companies and took risks to cover politically complex stories about the Communist Party. He changed careers to become a Marine in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then worked at one of the world’s largest hedge funds. Other Trump national security appointees with strong credentials before the administration — like onetime National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster or national security staffers Dina H. Powell McCormick and Nadia Schadlow — have landed similarly well.

Policy officials have often found ways to transcend party politics, even as they work for partisan leaders. In previous administrations, “there is a lot of respect on both parties for the other sides’ experts even when they vehemently disagree. Policy disagreements are normal and helpful,” said Elizabeth Saunders, a professor at Georgetown University who focuses on the presidency and foreign policy.

In some ways, this is a practical consideration. “Someone’s got to keep the lights on. Someone’s got to run China policy no matter how much you think the president’s good, bad, antidemocratic,” explains Saunders.

A concern raised by scholars of US foreign policy is the thin bench of potential staffers for a future Republican administration. If the Democrats were to lose in 2024, it will have been over a decade since a mainstream GOP candidate took the executive branch, and there are thousands of jobs that would need to be filled.

This pursuit of Republican foreign policy thinkers — to serve on public panels, testify to Congress, or author articles for prestigious journals like Foreign Affairs — has made it appealing to hear from people like Pottinger or McMaster, who do have recent high-level government experience.

 AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump stands with National Security Council official Matt Pottinger and White House chief of staff John Kelly at an economic summit in Vietnam, in 2017.

But that deference extends mainly to policy staffers and experts who hew to Washington’s established worldview. It is worth emphasizing the Biden administration’s continuity with Trump in implementing many of the hawkish China policies of tariffs, sanctions, and strategic competition put forward by Pottinger. “There is a very narrow range of acceptable opinion, and if you’re within it you can weather a lot. Both Pottinger and O’Brien in many respects are inside the Beltway consensus on the big issues of the day,” said Michael Desch, a political scientist at the University of Notre Dame.

It’s part of the unwritten rules of the elite club of Washington. “If you criticize NATO enlargement or Israel or some of the more foundational cornerstones of post-Cold War American foreign policy, you are more likely to be cast aside than if you worked for years for Donald Trump. And that’s just crazy,” Rhodes said.

Lack of accountability is self-perpetuating

There certainly are former Trump advisers who haven’t been welcomed back, like the short-lived National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and has encouraged challenges to the 2020 election’s integrity. Steve Bannon isn’t speaking at any centrist think tanks or universities anytime soon. But their cases are exceptions that prove the rule. “For me, the real story is the ability of inside-the-Beltway people to escape accountability for dumb things they did when in office, and I think it’s broader than just the Trump administration,” Desch said.

Many attribute the reentry of some Trump officials to Washington to a broader lack of reckoning for the enablers of the Iraq War. It’s well established at this point that President George W. Bush’s primary rationale for invading Iraq, Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, was an outright lie. “The Bush administration had to work assiduously and I think at times dishonestly to make the case for war, and observing after the fact, I can’t point to anyone who was sanctioned for supporting the war,” said Christopher Preble of the Atlantic Council, a global affairs think tank in Washington.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who planned the war, and Secretary of State Colin Powell, who advocated for it at the United Nations, both maintained platforms before their deaths this year, as have their acolytes. Consider David Frum, the speechwriter who coined the “Axis of Evil” tagline that helped sell the war, who has rebranded himself as a popular columnist for the Atlantic.

And powerful Democrats (Joe Biden, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton) voted for the war. It’s not just that there were never trials or prosecutions for the Bush officials, or tough questions to their cheerleaders in academic, media, and think tank circles; support for the Iraq debacle has never really been an impediment to career advancement. Quite the opposite: None of the 33 scholars who signed onto an anti-Iraq War ad in the New York Times two decades ago have ascended to government roles, notes scholar Stephen Walt in The Hell of Good Intentions.

It’s rare that those who perpetuated foreign policy disasters are even asked about them; one of the few times a journalist did pose such a question produced a revealing sound bite.

Broadcast journalist Mehdi Hasan asked John Bolton, the senior Bush diplomat who went on to be Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, whether he regretted advocating for the Iraq War, especially in light of the hundreds of thousands of civilians who died. “You don’t know what you’re talking about,” Bolton said, and called the war a “brilliant military victory by the United States and other coalition forces.”

Me: “All those innocent Iraqi civilians. All the men and women, children killed by U.S. airstrikes. Some in massacres…None of those weigh on your conscience? None of those keep you up at night?”

John Bolton: “You don’t know what you’re talking about.”pic.twitter.com/nSMmZGg1cJ

— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) October 15, 2020

The persistent failures of US foreign policy since the Cold War, and the lack of accountability for those failures, helped give rise to Trump, argues Walt. He writes that “perhaps the greatest barrier to genuine accountability is the self-interest of the foreign policy establishment itself. Its members are reluctant to judge one another harshly and are ready to forgive mistakes lest they be judged themselves.”

Other experts have a more generous interpretation of how Washington slouched toward Baghdad. Kori Schake, a former Bush official now at the American Enterprise Institute, told me that policymakers are implementing decisions based on imperfect information and short timelines. “If you are going to have in government people who have never made an inaccurate judgment on foreign and defense policy, you are going to have almost no one who meets this standard,” she said.

There may be other analogues for the current moment. Few of the Ronald Reagan officials associated with the Iran-Contra arms scandal were rehabilitated. Robert McNamara, the former defense secretary during seven of the most devastating years of the Vietnam War, repudiated his views and still was never really welcomed back into the establishment. “At the end of the day, it comes down to questions of integrity,” Schake said. “Do you judge that these are people of good faith trying to do the right thing? Or do you think they’re a danger and need to be cordoned off from potential future roles?”

As Pottinger said last summer, “I’m proud of a lot of things that the administration did, and I think I’ll look back on those years as ones that I’m proud of.”

Should we be swabbing our noses or our throats for at-home tests? Do rapid tests even detect omicron at all? Are PCR tests the only results we can trust right now?

Guidance about how to approach testing in the omicron era seems to be evolving by the day. ​​A recent real-world study that followed 30 subjects likely exposed to omicron found that PCR saliva tests can catch Covid-19 cases three days before rapid antigen tests, which use nasal swabs. These findings, which have not been peer reviewed, seem to confirm after the Food and Drug Administration’s announcement in late December that, while they do detect omicron, rapid antigen tests may now have “reduced sensitivity.” But that doesn’t mean rapid tests don’t play a key role in our pandemic response going forward.

This is all confusing to a public that’s been pulled in several directions over the course of the pandemic when it comes to guidance and testing. Long delays for PCR test results, a shortage of at-home rapid tests, and the wait for more definitive science about the omicron variant have all made it more difficult to figure out when and how to to get tested. Nevertheless, public health experts say that, as more become available, rapid tests will be an increasingly vital tool for diagnosing Covid-19 and reducing its spread.

So you might be wondering: What’s the point if rapid tests aren’t as accurate as PCR tests? Well, rapid antigen tests, which look for a specific protein on the Covid-19 virus, remain extremely effective at confirming positive cases. Put simply, if you test positive on a rapid test, you almost certainly have Covid-19. If you test negative, in some cases, you might still test positive on a PCR test, which is much more sensitive because it tests for genetic evidence of the virus. Rapid tests may not pick up positive cases in people who have been vaccinated or who have recently recovered from Covid-19, since they may produce less virus, one expert told Recode.

Rapid tests can also reveal a positive case faster than the labs that process PCR tests, since they can take several days to share results with patients, especially during big waves of infection. Perhaps more importantly, rapid tests can indicate whether someone is contagious enough to spread the virus to others, which is what many people are most worried about.

“Given that a rapid antigen test is often the most feasible or available option for many, we don’t want the perfect to be the enemy of the good,” Joshua Michaud, the associate director for global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told Recode. He explained that every Covid-19 case that’s caught by someone who could take a rapid antigen test but not a PCR test is a win for public health.

Taking rapid tests more frequently also makes them more effective. Most at-home rapid test kits are designed to be conducted over the course of two days, which is why kits typically include two tests. Because each test is a snapshot of the moment it’s taken, multiple tests help reduce the chance of receiving a false negative.

Of course, all of this is assuming that you can get your hands on a rapid test. In the weeks since omicron started to spread, rapid tests have been incredibly hard to find in some parts of the country. These tests are out of stock because neither test manufacturers nor the Biden administration anticipated record levels of Covid-19 cases, which have boosted the demand for rapid tests. To confront the shortage, the White House now plans to buy and distribute 500 million free rapid tests in the coming weeks. When that happens, these tests could help catch more positive cases and lower the number of people infected with Covid-19.

How accurate are rapid tests when it comes to omicron?

The accuracy of a rapid test depends on how often you’re testing yourself and whether you want to identify a Covid-19 infection or measure your contagiousness. But if you test positive on a rapid test, you should trust the result, assume you’re infectious, and isolate for at least five days. If you test positive again after five days, the CDC recommends isolating for five more.

Rapid tests, however, are not perfect. Research indicates that antigen tests are less accurate than PCR tests — this has been the case since the beginning of the pandemic. PCR tests are processed in a lab, where sophisticated equipment can identify and amplify even the tiniest genetic evidence of the virus that causes Covid-19. These tests are so precise that patients can actually test positive for weeks after they’ve recovered and are no longer contagious. The results of rapid tests, meanwhile, can vary based on how much virus is in a patient’s nose at the time the sample is taken and how far along they are in their infection.

Scientists explain the difference between rapid tests and PCR tests in two ways: specificity, which reflects a test’s false-positive rate, and sensitivity, which reflects a test’s false-negative rate. Both PCR and rapid tests have high specificity, which means that their positive results are very trustworthy. But while PCR tests tend to have near- perfect sensitivity, rapid antigen tests tend to have a sensitivity around 80 to 90 percent. This means that rapid tests tend to produce more false negatives than PCR tests do.

Omicron makes testing even trickier. The sensitivity of rapid tests may be even lower for omicron cases, according to early research from the FDA and other scientists. Another problem is that omicron may propagate more in the throat than the lungs, which means it could take longer for Covid-19 to show up in nasal samples, even if someone is symptomatic. It’s possible that vaccinated people and people who have recently recovered from Covid-19 are noticing more false positives on rapid tends because they tend to produce less virus overall.

“At-home tests are mostly effective when the person has high viral loads, a time when the person is more likely to transmit the virus,” Pablo Penaloza-MacMaster, a viral immunologist at Northwestern’s medical school, told Recode, “Most at-home tests are still able to detect infection by omicron because they target a part of the virus that doesn’t mutate that much.”

Separate studies from both the UK’s Health Security Agency and researchers in Australia found that antigen tests are as sensitive to the omicron variant as they were to earlier strains of Covid-19. Again, the FDA does still recommend rapid tests to diagnose positive cases, and test manufacturers say they’re confident in their products’ ability to detect omicron. While early research indicates saliva tests might detect Covid-19 more quickly, right now most of the PCR tests and all of the available rapid at-home tests that have emergency use authorizations from the FDA use nasal samples.

How to use rapid tests in less-than-ideal circumstances

Which brings us back to the question of whether you should be sticking nasal swabs in your throat. There is evidence that saliva samples may be a quicker indicator of Covid-19 cases, but that doesn’t mean you should stop following the directions that come with your test kit. The FDA says that people should not use rapid antigen tests to swab their own mouths. Some experts say you might consider doing so anyway, and point out that other countries, including the UK, have approved rapid antigen tests that use throat swabs and released very careful directions about how to do so.

“​​I personally do swab my throat and my nose to get the best sensitivity when I use over-the-counter tests at home,” Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard, said at a Thursday press conference. “There are risks associated with that, but the biology does tell us that they might be getting better sensitivity earlier.”

But the concern with rapid test kits right now is not that people are swabbing their noses, but how often they’re swabbing their noses. A single test could miss a Covid-19 case and produce a false negative, but taking two tests over a 24 to 36 hour period reduces this risk. The more rapid tests you take, the more you reduce your chances of a false negative, and the more times you test negative over multiple days, the more confident you can be that you’re not spreading Covid-19.

Still, the biggest problem right now is that rapid tests are pricey and hard to find. Pharmacies have limited the number of test kits people can buy, and many are completely sold out. A single test can also cost more than $10, which means that testing yourself regularly gets expensive quickly. Opportunists have even hoarded tests and engaged in price gouging, which has exacerbated the shortage.

If you don’t have enough tests to test yourself regularly, it’s best to test yourself right before seeing vulnerable people, says Mara Aspinall, a professor who leads Arizona State’s testing diagnostic commons and a board member for the test manufacturer Orasure, told Recode. “I’m heading to a vulnerable person [or] I’m going into a health care setting, and therefore need to test right beforehand.”

For now, the best test kit is the test you can get (Wired has a handy list of the brands currently available). If you’re planning to go somewhere and don’t want to spread the virus, you should take one rapid test the day before traveling, and then a second test immediately before you go. If you only have one rapid test, take it right before you see people.

Testing yourself should become easier as more rapid tests become available. In addition to the 500 million free rapid tests that the White House will distribute beginning later this month, people with private insurance will also be able to get their rapid test purchases reimbursed starting next week. You should also check with your local health department, as they might be distributing free tests.

Even though the rapid test situation is still less than ideal, there are other strategies we can use to protect both ourselves and other people from Covid-19, like getting vaccinated, getting boosted, and wearing a mask. And if you do happen to find some rapid tests, go ahead and grab them. They might just come in handy, especially if you use them correctly.

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